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Department of Finance Brexit Research
Published on
Last updated on
Published on
Last updated on
Department of Finance Brexit Research .
This paper examines the early months of trade in goods between the United Kingdom and European Union in the aftermath of Brexit. Controlling for product-time and partner country effects across all European bilateral trade flows, we isolate the contribution of Brexit on trade in the first half of 2021 from other potential common drivers of trade flows including the COVID-19 pandemic.
This paper examines the early months of post-Brexit trade flows in goods between Ireland and the United Kingdom. Controlling for product-level time effects across all global trade partners, we isolate the contribution of Brexit to trade in the first eight months of 2021 from other potential common drivers of trade flows including the COVID-19 pandemic.
This paper re-examines the key drivers of Irish goods exports and the mechanisms through which firms adjust. This work is motivated by the need to further develop our understanding of the potential trade implications of the UK’s forthcoming exit from the EU.
Examination of the sectoral overlap of COVID-19 and Brexit shocks - September 2019
This paper looks at sectoral exposure to both the COVID-19 and Brexit shocks to assess if there is a risk that the impact of a hard Brexit on an economy weakened by dealing with COVID-19 could make the previously estimated effects of Brexit worse.
This Article attempts to quantify the macroeconomic impact of Brexit on the Irish economy. Given both the political and economic uncertainty, we consider a range of alternative scenarios.
The paper examines the sectoral import exposures of the Irish economy and other EU Member States to the UK, building on a September 2017 Department of Finance research paper analysing export exposures. Together with previous studies, this report is a further contribution that will inform the whole of Government work on contingency planning. Link to press release here.
This paper examines how exposed traded sectors of the Irish economy and other European Union (EU) member states are to the United Kingdom in light of Brexit. The paper also compares Ireland’s revealed comparative advantage at the sectoral level, to show the most specialised sectors in Ireland relative to the rest of the world, and how Brexit may affect these.
This paper examines the trade exposures of sectors of the Irish economy to the UK in light of the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union.
The research in this paper is motivated by a desire to better understand which sectors of Ireland’s economy are most exposed to the UK’s departure from the EU.
Note: This paper is an update of a previous version of the paper that was published with Budget 2017 on 11 October 2016. Following publication of the October 2016 version, the CSO released updated data which is now included in the revised paper.
This research was conducted under the joint Department of Finance and ESRI Research Programme on The Macroeconomy and Taxation, and examines the potential medium to long term implications of Brexit under a range of scenarios.
Looking at the effect ten years after a UK exit, a WTO scenario results in the level of GDP being 3.8 per cent below what it otherwise would have been in a no-Brexit scenario; the bulk of the impact occurs in the first five years. As a result, the level of employment is 2 per cent below what it would otherwise have been, with the unemployment rate nearly 2 percentage points higher. The most severe scenario indicates that the Irish economy will be more severely impacted than the UK economy.
Scoping the Possible Economic Implications of Brexit on Ireland - November 2015
In advance of the referendum under the joint Department of Finance/ ESRI research programme, an initial scoping study on the potential implications of Brexit was undertaken. The purpose of this study was to:
Describe and quantify the key economic linkages which have developed over time between Ireland and the UK in the context of EU membership, and
Make an initial assessment of the risks and opportunities to these economic linkages in the context of potential future developments at EU-level, in particular a UK exit from the EU.
The main findings of the paper relate to the implications Brexit may have for:
Trade
Foreign Direct Investment
Energy in Ireland, the UK and NI
Migration across Ireland and the UK