According to Central Statistics Office data, the y-o-y increase in GDP at constant (1995) market prices in 2003 was 3.7% while the corresponding increase in GNP was 2.8%. The following table shows growth in GDP and GNP in constant (1995) prices and the corresponding annual values in current market prices.

* preliminary

These figures represent the average of the expenditure and output estimate of GDP and GNP respectively.

Latest preliminary estimates from the CSO relate to the first quarter of 2004. These indicate that GDP increased by 6.1% year-on-year in Q1 2004, while GNP increased by 5.1% over the same period.

BUDGET INDICATORS

Note: Half-year Exchequer returns, scheduled for release on July 2, are not included here.

Exchequer Balance

The 2003 Exchequer Balance showed a deficit of €980 million, which compares with the Budget 2003 target of a deficit of €1,869 million. In 2002 there was an Exchequer Surplus of €95 million. A deficit of €2,806 million is forecast for 2004.

General Government Balance

The estimated outturn for the General Government Balance (GGB) in 2002 is a deficit of 0.2% of GDP on an ESA 95 basis. The 2003 estimated outturn for the GGB is a surplus of 0.2% of GDP, while a deficit of 1.1% is forecast for 2004.

General Government Receipts and Expenditure*

* rounding may affect totals.

An advance release calendar for central and general government - one quarter in advance - is available on the IMF Dissemination Standard Bulletin Board (details below).

General Government Debt

Ireland’s General Government Debt to GDP ratio was 32.3% at end-2002.  The outturn at end-2003 is estimated to be 32.8% and the forecast for end-2004 is 32.2%.

BALANCE OF PAYMENTS – CURRENT ACCOUNT

There was a deficit of €685 million on the current account of the Balance of Payments in the first quarter of 2004. This compares with a deficit of €834 million in Q1 2003. The deficit in Q1 2004 was due to debit balances under the Services heading and the Income heading, as well as Current Transfers, which more than offset the credit balance under the Merchandise Trade heading. The current account deficit for the year 2003 was €1,896m compared to a deficit of €1,617m for 2002.

EMPLOYMENT

Labour Force Survey / Quarterly National Household Survey

The latest Quarterly National Household Survey (June 2004) indicates that in the twelve months to the quarter December to February 2004:

- Employment increased by 52,300 or 2.9%;

- Unemployment decreased by 1,600; the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.4% (4.4% non-seasonally adjusted);

- The labour force increased by 50,800 or 2.7%;

- The number of long term unemployed increased over the year by 3,800 – the long term unemployment rate stood at 1.6% in the quarter December to February;

- The seasonally adjusted participation rate was 60.6% in Q1 2004, up from 60.5% in Q4 2003 and 60.1% in Q1 2003 (i.e. quarter on quarter and year on year comparison).

Live Register

The Live Register figure for May 2004 was 161,972. This is a decrease of 2,688 on the figure for April 2004 and a decrease of 4,133 on the figure for May 2003. The underlying seasonally adjusted figure in May 2004 was 168,000, which represents an increase of 1,800 on the figure for April 2004 and a decrease of 4,100 on the seasonally adjusted figure for May 2003.

Building and Construction Employment

Figures in the QNHS indicate that employment in construction rose by 13,500 or 7.2% in the 12 months to the quarter December to February 2004. The CSO’s index of Employment in Construction release indicates that construction employment increased by 0.8% year on year to April 2004.

Other Production

The latest QNHS indicates that employment in production (other than construction) decreased by 8,400 or 2.7% in the twelve months to the quarter December to February 2004. The CSO release on Industrial Employment (March 2004) indicates that industrial employment decreased by 11,000 (4.3%) in the twelve months to December 2003.

Banking, Insurance and Building Societies

Figures in the QNHS indicate that employment in “financial and other business services” increased by 8,300, or 3.7% in the 12 months to the quarter December to February 2004.The latest CSO release Banking, Insurance and Building Societies: Employment and Earnings indicates that employment in banking, insurance and building societies increased by 1,500 (3%) in the twelve months to December 2003.

Public Sector employment

Figures released in the QNHS indicate that employment in public administration and defence decreased by 300 or 0.3% in the 12 months to the quarter December to February 2004, and employment in education and health increased by 12,900 or 4.5% over the same period. The latest CSO Statistical Release on Public Sector Employment and Average Earnings indicates that 241,200 were employed in the public sector (excluding health), an increase of 1,100 (0.4%) in the year to December 2003.

Notified redundancies

The latest figures from the Department of Enterprise, Trade and Employment show that the number of notified redundancies in 2003 was 27,702, an increase of 9.2% on the figure of 25,358 for 2002. There were 2,240 notified redundancies in May 2004, an increase of 10.3% on the corresponding figure for May 2003.

FÁS Training and Employment Programmes

At end May 2004, there were 23,293 people in FÁS Employment Schemes (incl. 19,900 on Community Employment). There were a further 10,796 on training programmes / schemes for the unemployed and jobseekers. The corresponding figures for those in FÁS Employment Schemes for May 2003 was 26,576 (incl. 22,769 on Community Employment) and 13,576 were attending the various other training programmes / schemes. 

EARNINGS

Industrial Earnings

The latest CSO release shows that average weekly industrial earnings in the year to December 2003 increased by 6.9%, reflecting an increase of 5.3% in the hourly rate and an increase of 1.5% in the number of hours worked. Average weekly industrial earnings in December 2003 were €558.69.

The corresponding average increases for the manufacturing sector were 6.1% (weekly), 4.8% (hourly) and a 1.3% increase in hours worked, with weekly earnings of €533.26.

The earnings of all employees in the industrial sector rose by 5.9% to €647.11 in the year to December 2003. As well as the aforementioned 6.9% increase for Industrial workers, there was a 4.3% increase for Clerical & Managerial employees.

Construction

According to the latest CSO release, average weekly earnings for all workers in the construction sector increased by 4.3% to €685.72 in the year to March 2004 - the hourly rate increased by 5.4% while the number of hours worked fell by 1.1%. In the same period, average weekly earnings of skilled operatives increased by 3.5% to €795.48, while for unskilled/semi-skilled workers there was a 4.6% increase to €666.71.

Banking, Insurance and Building Societies

The CSO Statistical Release, Banking, Insurance and Building Societies: Employment and Earnings, indicates that average weekly earnings in the financial sector increased by 4.6% to €711.01 in the year to December 2003.

Public Sector

The latest CSO figures show that average weekly earnings in the public sector (excluding health) increased by 3.5% to €743.53 in the year to December 2003.

Distribution and Business Services

The latest CSO release indicates that average weekly earnings in the Distribution and Business Services sector increased by 4.0% to €608.73 in the year to December 2003. Average weekly earnings in the Distribution sector increased by 3.0% to €607.97 while those in the Business Services sector increased by 4.6% over the same period to €609.15.

INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES

Inflation

The latest CSO figures show that the rate of inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased to 1.7% in May from 1.4% in April. This increase was partly due to the increase in oil prices but mainly due to the effect of last year’s mortgage interest rate cut falling out of the index. Excluding mortgage interest rates, the underlying CPI was 1.8%. The CPI excluding tobacco was 1.5%. In December 2003, the Department forecast an annual average CPI rate of inflation of 2.5% in 2004.

As measured by the EU Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), Ireland’s annual inflation rate was 2.1% in May, up from 1.7% in April. This is only the second time since the beginning of EMU that the Irish rate of inflation was lower than the Euro area average. Euro area inflation in May was 2.5%, compared to 2.0% in April.

Manufacturing Output Prices

In May 2004, manufacturing output prices decreased by 0.1% y-o-y. The prices for home sales increased by 0.9% y-o-y, while export sales prices fell by 0.3% y-o-y.

Interest Rates

The EURIBOR one-month interbank rate on 30 June 04 was 2.07%, up from 2.06% at the end of May, while the EURIBOR three-month interbank interest rate at 30 June was 2.12%, up from 2.09% at end of May.

Ten-year Irish Government bonds (04/2013) traded at close of 30 June 04 at a yield of 4.24% compared to 4.31% for the equivalent German Government bonds (07/2014). The European Central Bank’s Repo rate at end of June was 2.00%.

House Prices

Department of the Environment, Heritage and Local Government figures show that the average price of new houses nationwide in 2003 rose by 13.4% to €224,567 while the average price of second-hand houses rose by 16.3% to €264,898. In Dublin, average new house prices rose by 13.9% to €291,646 while average second-hand house prices rose by 19.5% to €355,451.

In the last quarter of 2003, average new house prices nationwide rose by 13.9% y-o-y to €235,688 while average second-hand house prices rose by 15.3% to €277,818. In the same period, average new house prices in Dublin increased by 13.5% y-o-y to €303,193 while average second-hand house prices in Dublin increased by 17.0% to €372,910.

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION

Retail Sales

In the month of March 2004, the volume of retail sales increased by 5.0% y-o-y; if Motor Trades are excluded the increase was 3.6%. For the January-March period the increase was 2.5% for both All Businesses and All Businesses excluding Motor Trades. The annual increase in Retail Sales volume in 2003 as a whole was 0.8% while the corresponding increase excluding Motor Trades was 1.4%. The volume increase in sales in 2002 was 0.1%, while sales excluding Motor Trades increased by 1.7%.

Car Registrations

Data from the Revenue Commissioners indicates that new car registrations in May 2004 were up by 3.9% on the same month in 2003. Meanwhile, registrations of imported used cars were up 42.7% y-o-y in May 2004. Cumulative sales of new cars in January-May were up 7.7% year-on-year, while the increase for imported used cars was 51.7%.

OUTPUT AND EXPORTS

Manufacturing Output

Manufacturing output volume increased by 5.9% y-o-y in March 2004 and was 4.9% higher y-o-y for the 3-month period January-March 2004. The CSO provisionally estimates that output grew by 2.7% y-o-y in April 2004 and by 2.7% y-o-y for the 3-month period February-April 2004. According to CSO data, manufacturing output volume grew by 6.4% in 2003, following an 8.4% increase in 2002.

Exports

First estimates from the CSO indicate that the value of exports in the month of April 2004 increased by 9% y-o-y. In January to March 2004 exports were 5% higher in value terms than in the corresponding period in 2003. Comparing the volume of exports in January to March 2004 with that in January to March 2003 reveals an increase of 11.9%.

Comparing the Jan-Mar 2004 period with Jan-Mar 2003 (in value terms) shows that:

·        Exports of Food and live animals increased by 6.9%

·        Exports of Chemicals increased by 9.8%

·        Exports of Medical and pharmaceutical products increased by 14%

·        Exports of Computer equipment decreased by 9%

·        Exports to the UK decreased by 6%

·        Exports to the US decreased by 3%

·        Exports to the EU increased by 8.8%

TOURISM

According to CSO figures, there were 6,369,000 overseas visits toIreland in 2003, an increase of 5% over 2002. The number of visits abroad by Irish residents was 4,929,000 in 2003, an increase of 6.4% on 2002. Earnings from overseas visitors to Ireland in 2003 amounted to €3,876 million, an increase of 2.9% over 2002. Expenditure by Irish visitors abroad amounted to €4,163 million in 2003, an increase of 5.3% over 2002.

In the first quarter of 2004, there were 1,212,000 overseas visitors to Ireland, compared with 1,118,000 in the same period in 2003, an increase of 8.4%. The number of visits abroad by Irish residents in Q1 2004 was 1,039,000, an increase of 10.6% when compared with the first quarter of 2003.

AGRICULTURE

Output

The CSO release Output, Input and Income in Agriculture 2003 - Final Estimate indicates that agricultural output at basic prices increased by 3.1% in 2003. This follows a decrease of 3.8% in 2002.

Farm Incomes

The same CSO release shows that aggregate farm incomes (i.e. operating surplus) grew by 2.6% in 2003, largely as a result of increases in the value of output for cattle and crops. This follows a decrease in farm incomes of 6.8% in 2001.

OTHER NEWS

Information on Budget 2004 is available on the Department of Finance website.

www.finance.gov.ie

Copies of CSO releases can be downloaded from www.cso.ie

Details of forthcoming statistical releases, including the IMF’s advance calendar can be found at: http://dsbb.imf.org/Applications/web/sddscountrycategorylist/?strcode=IRL

Queries and comments to: Joe Kirwan or Colm O’Connor, Department of Finance, 73-79 Lower Mount Street, Dublin 2.

Phone (01) 6045771 or (01) 6045772, or e-mail:Joe.Kirwan@finance.gov.ie or Colm.O’Connor@finance.gov.ie